About 'baseball prospect camp'|February 29, 2012 – Tracking the elusive Lofton beast and grabbing baseballs- Indians and Padres Camp
It is foolish to make any decisions based on stats accumulated in Spring Training. First off, the level of competition is not the same during Cactus or Grapefruit League play as it is during the regular season. Stars rarely play a full game and the box score is filled with guys who will not play in the Majors in the coming seasons. Also, established players frequently use Spring Training to try different things. Eric Chavez is working on a new batting stance, Brad Penny is throwing more changeups and breaking balls, Bill Wagner is trying out a splitter - those are just three examples of all-stars working on new things. But the most important reason one should not make any decisions based on Spring Training stats is that nobody accumulates enough playing time to make them worthwhile. The leaders on most teams right now will have somewhere around 50 at-bats and that is simply not enough for the stats to have any meaningful significance. Last year, Rockies shortstop Clint Barmes had the lowest batting average of any player that qualified for the batting title. He hit just .220 in 478 at-bats. But from July 13th-July 27th, in 53 at-bats, Barmes had 21 hits and posted a .396 average. While players do not accumulate enough at-bats to make meaningful decisions, it is still fun to see how certain players do in Spring Training. After all, a small sample size is better than none at all. But it is best to use these stats to confirm what we already know. My favorite use of Spring Training stats is to see how top rookies or young players are performing. Here's a quick rundown of 10 up and coming ballplayers who are having very good Spring Training results. Ryan Braun: One of the top prospects for the Brewers, Braun hit .353 with a .912 slugging percentage in 34 at-bats before being sent to Minor League camp. Braun had eight extra-base hits, including five home runs, in Spring Training. But Braun had trouble fielding the ball. He will need to show that he can make the plays at third base in the Minors before getting his first promotion to the Majors. Billy Butler: Billed as one of the top hitters in the Minor Leagues, Butler lived up to the hype in Spring Training, batting .419 with a .774 slugging percentage in 31 at-bats. One of two Royals prospects on this list, Butler will start the season in the Minors and prove he can play a position other than designated hitter. But even if he can't, that bat will be useful in Kansas City very soon. Alberto Callaspo: A middle infielder for the Diamondbacks, Callaspo hit .444 with a .622 slugging mark in 45 at-bats. If starting second baseman Orlando Hudson should stumble, Arizona should have a replacement waiting in Callaspo. Alex Gordon: The front runner for the American League Rookie of the Year, Alex Gordon has posted great Spring Training numbers, batting .390 with a .659 slugging mark in 41 at-bats. Seven of his 16 hits have gone for extra-base hits. The Royals have announced that he will be the club's starting third baseman on Opening Day. Josh Hamilton: This is hands down the feel-good story of Spring Training. Hamilton, the first pick in the 1999 draft, played in just 15 games the past four seasons due to personal problems stemming from drug abuse. Selected by the Reds in the Rule 5 draft, Hamilton is batting .476 with a .667 slugging mark in Spring Training. Hamilton has to remain with the Reds all season long or be offered back to Tampa Bay for half of the $50,000 waiver fee that Cincinnati paid to acquire him. The Reds could also make a deal with the Devil Rays for Hamilton. If they do this, he could be sent to the Minor Leagues to get the at-bats that he needs. Whatever happens, it is good to see the young man get his life back on track. Howie Kendrick: Kendrick saw significant action for the Angels in the second half of last season. With Adam Kennedy allowed to leave via free agency, the second base job is Kendrick's this season. He's batting .400 with a .689 slugging mark. He has seven extra-base hits among his 18 safeties so far in Spring Training action. Cameron Maybin: Maybin may be a couple of years away from the Majors but he certainly opened eyes by hitting .429 with a .905 slugging mark in Spring Training this year. Four of his nine hits went for extra-bases, with two triples and two home runs. Lastings Milledge: The Mets had a great year in 2006, but one of their few missteps was not giving Milledge more playing time in the Majors once they cruised to the National League East title. While some complained about his attitude in the Majors last year, no one should be upset with his .370 average and .543 slugging mark in 46 at-bats so far in Spring Training. While the Mets plan to trot out the corpse of Shawn Green to open the season in right field, Milledge should take over at some point during the 2007 season. And the sooner it happens, the better. Hunter Pence: Perhaps no youngster has had a better Spring Training in 2007 than Astros outfielder Hunter Pence. The 38th-ranked prospect by Baseball America, Pence produced 16 hits in his first 28 at-bats in Spring Training. Eight of those hits went for extra-bases, giving Pence a 1.071 slugging mark. Troy Tulowitzki: While the Rockies suffered with poor hitting from the aforementioned Clint Barmes in the shortstop position in 2006, help is on the way with Tulowitzki. The youngster has 13 hits in his first 36 at-bats in Spring Training, including five doubles. All 10 of the youngsters mentioned above have been ranked on top prospect lists. They have performed well over a full season or more in the Minor Leagues, which has cemented their status. The production in Spring Training does not trump what they did over an entire season. But it is always much more fun to see the youngsters perform well than not. Just ask the Diamondbacks' Chris Young, the 12th-rated prospect by Baseball America. I'm sure he would rather be doing better than the .217 is he hitting in Cactus League action. |
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